Fifth-Generation Warfare: http://www.fifthgeneration.phaticcommunion.com/
Enterprise Resilience Management Blog: Insights about a new Enterprise Architecture for corporations, governmental agencies, transnational organizations, and nation-states in the age of globalization. http://enterpriseresilienceblog.typepad.com/enterprise_resilience_man/ (You'll love this one, Dom)
Force Multiplier for Intelligence: Collaborative Open Source Networks: The once seamless relationship between the intelligence community, academia, and the private sector seriously deteriorated at the end of the Cold War. Early in the twenty-first century, in the post-9/11 environment, these links appeared headed for a renaissance of sorts—and drastic reform.Radical expansion and modernization of open source exploitation is a strategic reform of great importance to the intelligence community. Legacy security rules on outreach to nongovernmental experts are distinctly incompatible with knowledge building—and knowledge sharing—in the information age. Publicly available open source intelligence is frequently undervalued and underutilized. Yet there is now scarcely a subject where it doesn’t provide significant context and a baseline of knowledge. Open source information thus plays a key role in intelligence work by cueing valuable collection and analysis resources and in bringing into sharper focus the problem at hand: http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,3980/type,1/
Predictive Network-Centric Intelligence: Toward a Total-Systems Transformation of Analysis and Assessment (Winner, 2006 Galileo Essay Contest Sponsored by the Director of National Intelligence):
http://www.cna.org/documents/TimSmithGalileoEssay.pdf
Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic Draft of August 31, 2006.
http://www.singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf
Linked: The New Science of Networks By Albert-László Barabási
A cocktail party. A terrorist cell. Ancient bacteria. An international conglomerate. All are networks, and all are a part of a surprising scientific revolution. Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, the nations foremost expert in the new science of networks, takes us on an intellectual adventure to prove that social networks, corporations, and living organisms are more similar than previoulsy thought. Grasping a full understanding of network science, will someday allow us to design blue chip businesses, stop the outbreak of deadly diseases, and influence the exchange of ideas and information. Just as James Gleick brought the discovery of the Chaos theory to the general public, Linked tells the story of the true science of the future.
Google Books
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Network Analysis
So, I just finished a week-long course in "Epidemiologic Simulation Modeling" using primarily Reed-Frost, Markov Chain, and State Transition stochastic methods. Don't worry so much about the types of methods, but realize they are stochastic (think Bayesian), so they incorporate randomness into the mathematical model (they can be created in excel).
On the last day of the course, there was a class on modeling complex disease network transmission and they described methods of network analysis (think social network analysis). Further, they discussed the difference between random networks (e.g. U.S. road system) and scale-free networks (e.g. U.S. air traffic). I laughed when they mentioned that scale-free networks are resistant to disruption, however, if someone removes a hub (a central node with a lot of connections), it can cause system-wide collapse (a la cascading infrastructure failure).
In all, I believe there's a huge opportunity in this which can be combined with some of the 'open-source'/'swarm theory'/'wisdom of crowds' theories - basically, the network analysis can be used for analysis, targeting, and simulation, while the other theories can be used for targeting, collection, and simulation.
They fit in well with Ben's post because:
1) network analysis (at least initially) must be completed at a local level or a focused topic (just too complex for a large-scale effort initially); therefore, it lends itself well to state/local efforts.
2) in conducting the network analysis and open-source framework, one must look holistically at it, otherwise, it will not be useful on a broad-scope.
3) ditto on IWS core business area and EML.
4) very few people are using these methods for intel, disease, etc.; instead, they are primarily used in sociology, transportation, and automation.
5) if we can move on this, we can become leaders in the area, especially in the intel and health communities.
6) talked with jim and he brought some of this up....he mentioned that we can bill against researching this topic for Argus targeting, analysis and collection.
7) there are academic folks in Colorado (and elsewhere) who are interested in conducting basic research in these areas....just need to give them ideas for research.
I think combining our comments and moving forward can provide a short-term payoff with targeting, analysis, and collection, while providing a long-term benefit with developing simulations/models that can randomly generate scenarios for table-top and desktop training (e.g. EML).
On the last day of the course, there was a class on modeling complex disease network transmission and they described methods of network analysis (think social network analysis). Further, they discussed the difference between random networks (e.g. U.S. road system) and scale-free networks (e.g. U.S. air traffic). I laughed when they mentioned that scale-free networks are resistant to disruption, however, if someone removes a hub (a central node with a lot of connections), it can cause system-wide collapse (a la cascading infrastructure failure).
In all, I believe there's a huge opportunity in this which can be combined with some of the 'open-source'/'swarm theory'/'wisdom of crowds' theories - basically, the network analysis can be used for analysis, targeting, and simulation, while the other theories can be used for targeting, collection, and simulation.
They fit in well with Ben's post because:
1) network analysis (at least initially) must be completed at a local level or a focused topic (just too complex for a large-scale effort initially); therefore, it lends itself well to state/local efforts.
2) in conducting the network analysis and open-source framework, one must look holistically at it, otherwise, it will not be useful on a broad-scope.
3) ditto on IWS core business area and EML.
4) very few people are using these methods for intel, disease, etc.; instead, they are primarily used in sociology, transportation, and automation.
5) if we can move on this, we can become leaders in the area, especially in the intel and health communities.
6) talked with jim and he brought some of this up....he mentioned that we can bill against researching this topic for Argus targeting, analysis and collection.
7) there are academic folks in Colorado (and elsewhere) who are interested in conducting basic research in these areas....just need to give them ideas for research.
I think combining our comments and moving forward can provide a short-term payoff with targeting, analysis, and collection, while providing a long-term benefit with developing simulations/models that can randomly generate scenarios for table-top and desktop training (e.g. EML).
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Cascading Infrastructure Failure
I am sure many of you have heard me talk of the concept called "cascading infrastructure failure". It is based on the idea that no critical infrastructure is self-sufficient. The best resource I have found on this topic so far is at JMU's Institute for Infrastructure and Information Assurance (Sorry, not VTech, Dom).
The IIIA states:
The complexity inherent in the interdependent nature of infrastructure systems complicates planning and preparedness for system failures. Recent wide-scale disruption of infrastructure on the Gulf Coast due to weather, and in the Northeast due to electric power network failures, dramatically illustrate the problems associated with mitigating cascading effects and responding to cascading infrastructure failures once they have occurred.
The major challenge associated with preparedness for cascading failures is that they transcend system, corporate, and political boundaries and necessitate coordination among multiple, disparate experts and authorities.
There are a few reasons why I like the topic of cascading infrastructure failure and think that it is an area where IWS should develop expertise...
(1) it focuses on enabling the front line defenders, or the state and locals (4GW at its core),
(2) it requires a proactive, holistic approach
(3) interdependant infrastructure is a paradigm that easily translates from IWS' core expertise in enterprise systems strategy, and
(4) it fits directly into the mission of the IWS EML.
I propose we study this concept and consider ways in which we can become experts in the field.
Also, note that Todd Heffner attended their 2007 Symposium.
The IIIA states:
The complexity inherent in the interdependent nature of infrastructure systems complicates planning and preparedness for system failures. Recent wide-scale disruption of infrastructure on the Gulf Coast due to weather, and in the Northeast due to electric power network failures, dramatically illustrate the problems associated with mitigating cascading effects and responding to cascading infrastructure failures once they have occurred.
The major challenge associated with preparedness for cascading failures is that they transcend system, corporate, and political boundaries and necessitate coordination among multiple, disparate experts and authorities.
There are a few reasons why I like the topic of cascading infrastructure failure and think that it is an area where IWS should develop expertise...
(1) it focuses on enabling the front line defenders, or the state and locals (4GW at its core),
(2) it requires a proactive, holistic approach
(3) interdependant infrastructure is a paradigm that easily translates from IWS' core expertise in enterprise systems strategy, and
(4) it fits directly into the mission of the IWS EML.
I propose we study this concept and consider ways in which we can become experts in the field.
Also, note that Todd Heffner attended their 2007 Symposium.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
White Paper Concept
I would like for us to develop a white paper. Here's a sketch of how we can proceed:
1. Post top-line ideas and concepts in the blog
2. Discuss
3. Pull out the main topics suitable for a WP.
4. Determine where we need domain expertise (electricity distribution for instance)
5. Assign expert research and interview
6. Assemble WP
7. Send WP to communities of interest (Fredericksburg area for instance)
8. Schedule follow-up meetings
Here's a potential outliine:
1. Growing threat - history of incidents
2. Vulnerabilities due to technology
3. Options for response to threat and vulnerabilities
a. Federal - Fusion centers, Critical Infrastructure Protection Initiatives, Centralization
b. Local - Lack of resources and know-how, but needs to happen here
c. Offensive penetration of groups - Too many, too scattered, too unknown, only to gather means and methods
d. Self-sustenance is the answer
4. Not Fusion but Self-sustenance
a. Electrical
b. Communications
c. Security
d. Food and Water
e. Gasoline
5. Examples of low-cost solutions
1. Post top-line ideas and concepts in the blog
2. Discuss
3. Pull out the main topics suitable for a WP.
4. Determine where we need domain expertise (electricity distribution for instance)
5. Assign expert research and interview
6. Assemble WP
7. Send WP to communities of interest (Fredericksburg area for instance)
8. Schedule follow-up meetings
Here's a potential outliine:
1. Growing threat - history of incidents
2. Vulnerabilities due to technology
3. Options for response to threat and vulnerabilities
a. Federal - Fusion centers, Critical Infrastructure Protection Initiatives, Centralization
b. Local - Lack of resources and know-how, but needs to happen here
c. Offensive penetration of groups - Too many, too scattered, too unknown, only to gather means and methods
d. Self-sustenance is the answer
4. Not Fusion but Self-sustenance
a. Electrical
b. Communications
c. Security
d. Food and Water
e. Gasoline
5. Examples of low-cost solutions
The Brave New War Response
We've all read the BNW and have some ideas about how we can affect security in our own back yards. Let's start sharing those ideas in this blog.
I'd like the end product to be a white paper entitled "The Self-Sustaining Community." Rock and I discussed this morning and we'll get our thoughts down in this blog starting now. I encourage you to do the same.
I'd like the end product to be a white paper entitled "The Self-Sustaining Community." Rock and I discussed this morning and we'll get our thoughts down in this blog starting now. I encourage you to do the same.
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